Kessler Syndrome: Will We Be Able to Go to Space Anymore?

Last week, I was specially invited to a very important space strategy meeting by the French Space Agency (CNES). I was one of the few scientists invited to this workshop meeting, where there were many engineers and scientists from the French Space Agency, and besides me, there were scientists from space agencies such as America’s Space Agency NASA, the European Space Agency ESA, and the Japanese Space Agency JAXA. We discussed the pollution of space in general and Kessler Syndrome and how this will affect future space programs.

What is Space Debris?

Humanity has been looking at the sky and trying to understand the infinite depth of space since the first settlement in Göbeklitepe 11,000 years ago. Humanity’s efforts in space have advanced considerably since the launch of Sputnik by the Soviet Union in 1957. But this progress, of course, came at a high cost. Our expanding presence in space has caused the problem of space debris to grow. This growing cloud of debris from defunct satellites, rocket parts, and other man-made objects poses a significant threat to future space missions. Collisions with small pieces of debris moving at orbital speeds of tens of thousands of kilometers per hour can be catastrophic due to their momentum, damaging or destroying spacecraft and hindering scientific progress.

The sheer volume of space debris is quite alarming. According to the European Space Agency (ESA), there are currently more than 130 million pieces of debris larger than 1 millimeter in Earth orbit. While most are very small, even these small objects can cause critical damage. Objects exceeding 1 centimeter in size are considered potentially lethal in a crash scenario. This unstable situation is further exacerbated by the cascading impact of collisions. When debris collides, even more fragments are created, and the threat increases exponentially.

The impact of space debris isn’t just theoretical. A recent example highlights the real and present danger. The launch of India’s 2023 lunar exploration mission, Chandrayaan-3, to the Moon’s South Pole has suffered a critical four-second delay due to the detection of potential debris in its orbit. This last-minute maneuver underscores the growing need for robust space traffic management protocols to ensure the safety of spacecraft. There have also been several incidents in the past where space debris collisions destroyed satellites; For example, in 1996, the French CERISE satellite disintegrated after colliding with part of the Ariane 1 rocket. In 1991, the Russian Cosmos 1934 satellite collided with debris and broke up in orbit. In 2009, an Iridium communications satellite and a Russian Cosmos satellite collided, creating approximately 2,000 pieces of debris at least 10 centimeters in diameter. India destroyed a satellite with a missile in 2019 to demonstrate anti-satellite weaponry, and Russia carried out a similar demonstration in 2021. Together, these two space combat tests produced more than 1,500 pieces of debris. Following the Russian shooting, the seven crew members on the ISS had to temporarily take shelter in the Crew Dragon and Soyuz capsules in case the station was hit.

What is Kessler Syndrome?

The consequences of neglecting space debris mitigation extend far beyond single missions. A critical mass of debris can create the Kessler Syndrome event, a scenario in which collisions become so frequent that they produce more debris, rendering certain orbits unusable. This would effectively disrupt space activities, hindering communications, navigation, and scientific research. When Kessler Syndrome occurs, there will be too much spacecraft debris in the subspace orbit, so it will be impossible to launch a new spacecraft or rocket, and even if it is launched, it will collide with the debris in this suborbit while going into its own orbit, and therefore it will both be destroyed and this debris cloud will become denser.

Is Kessler Syndrome Imminent?

With the increase in space tourism launches since 2021, the incidence of Kessler Syndrome has become closer, especially now in 2024. Many new models, especially Solar Maxima expected in 2025 by NASA, suggest that Kessler Syndrome is prone to emerge in the next 2-3 years, along with satellite failures, increased space debris, and accelerated launches. Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites pose a serious threat in this regard. This satellite network, which was built to provide internet to the world, has made 25,000 orbit correction maneuvers in the first 6 months of 2024, and according to Musk, these maneuvers are done with Artificial Intelligence. So, what will happen if the circuits that run artificial intelligence are disrupted by electromagnetic energy loading when there is high solar storm activity expected to occur in 2025? If these satellites cannot maneuver and collide with other satellites, won’t this cause Kessler Syndrome and will this disrupt the future space studies of all countries?  Since our media satellites are in high orbit, they will not be affected by this, but it may be impossible to launch a new one. This will not only mean not being able to watch TV channels, but it will also mean that internet communications, military communications, and many remote sensing projects will be disrupted.

If Kessler Syndrome occurs, it will disrupt the concept of Space Exploration and make future space studies and access to space mines and resources impossible. All space agencies in the world are working on this subject, and I am generally invited to all of them. I think the Turkish Space Agency should do serious work on this issue, organize workshops, and lead on this issue representing Asia, and I am always ready to contribute the necessary information. Let’s not forget that if these concepts, which seem distant at the moment, are realized, they may hinder the rights of our children and grandchildren in space, and our nation, state, universities, and even the private sector should join hands and do whatever is necessary for the future of our country and the concept of Space Homeland.